Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230913 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.00 67.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 18.1 20.7 23.3 34.3 45.1 65.7 55.4 F F N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 32.0 23.0 22.0 7.0 7.0 12.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 65.0 65.0 65.0 59.6 48.6 29.4 13.6 -43.0 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 116.0 123.0 77.0 61.0 119.0 179.0 36.0 125.0 F F N N F VF N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 62.0 63.0 62.0 53.0 40.0 43.0 N N N N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 9.0 18.0 15.0 11.0 10.0 3.0 22.0 N U VU U U U N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.1% 3.9% 6.5% 25kt / 24h 10.1% 10.3% 10.2% 30kt / 24h 7.5% 5.9% 6.7% 35kt / 24h 3.9% 5.9% 4.9% 40kt / 24h 3.3% 5.9% 4.6% 45kt / 36h 26.0% 2.4% 14.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 AL132023 230913 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.00 67.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 18.1 20.7 23.3 34.3 45.1 65.7 55.4 U N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 62.0 63.0 62.0 53.0 40.0 43.0 N N N N N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 9.0 18.0 15.0 11.0 10.0 3.0 22.0 N F VF F F F N VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.1% 1.0%