Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230913 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.90 67.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 19.9 23.6 30.5 34.8 56.7 56.8 45.7 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 23.0 21.0 11.0 6.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 69.6 62.9 44.8 41.2 -3.2 -40.1 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 132.0 76.0 79.0 90.0 119.0 100.0 94.0 136.0 F N N F F F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 63.0 63.0 57.0 46.0 38.0 45.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 16.0 13.0 14.0 11.0 8.0 4.0 1.0 U U U U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.4% 1.9% 2.1% 25kt / 24h 4.2% 5.6% 4.9% 30kt / 24h 2.2% 2.9% 2.6% 35kt / 24h 1.5% 2.9% 2.2% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 2.9% 1.7% 45kt / 36h 4.4% 0.7% 2.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.42 AL132023 230913 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.90 67.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 19.9 23.6 30.5 34.8 56.7 56.8 45.7 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 63.0 63.0 57.0 46.0 38.0 45.0 N N N N F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 16.0 13.0 14.0 11.0 8.0 4.0 1.0 F F F F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.0% 1.0%