Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230914 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.50 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 26.9 33.7 34.5 54.8 58.0 49.9 36.5 N N U U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 17.0 8.0 5.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.6 67.9 63.6 49.8 46.2 6.7 -34.7 -38.0 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 75.0 116.0 81.0 125.0 107.0 97.0 114.0 96.0 N F N F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 61.0 57.0 47.0 40.0 47.0 50.0 N N N U VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 17.0 18.0 7.0 8.0 7.0 -2.0 3.0 VU U VU N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.5% 1.6% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 1.8% 2.7% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.86 AL132023 230914 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.50 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 26.9 33.7 34.5 54.8 58.0 49.9 36.5 N N F F VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 61.0 57.0 47.0 40.0 47.0 50.0 N N N F VF VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 17.0 18.0 7.0 8.0 7.0 -2.0 3.0 VF F VF N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.0% 2.4% 1.7%