Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230914 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.80 68.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 51.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.7 39.0 40.0 47.8 62.6 59.8 45.0 44.2 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.5 60.5 54.8 47.7 33.6 -21.5 -33.9 -31.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 98.0 74.0 110.0 98.0 41.0 97.0 101.0 58.0 F N F F N F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 61.0 55.0 50.0 41.0 39.0 44.0 48.0 N N U U VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 15.0 11.0 0.0 18.0 1.0 7.0 0.0 U U U N VU N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.34 AL132023 230914 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.80 68.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.