Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.10     68.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.6  43.6  48.7  61.1  62.4  51.6  40.9  48.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   7.0   4.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.5  59.8  52.7  56.2  -2.3 -28.2 -28.0 -30.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0 109.0 110.0  98.0 103.0 108.0  77.0  45.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  54.0  50.0  45.0  40.0  46.0  44.0  57.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  19.0  -1.0   8.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   5.0  U VU  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.04

 AL132023 230914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.10     68.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.