Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230915 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.10 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 17.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.0 43.8 61.0 60.6 59.2 44.0 39.8 42.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 4.0 12.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 59.8 52.7 56.2 38.6 -16.5 -28.0 -27.3 -30.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 126.0 82.0 87.0 54.0 100.0 119.0 35.0 32.0 F N F N F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 51.0 45.0 41.0 48.0 50.0 56.0 61.0 U U VU VU U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 8.0 14.0 7.0 13.0 0.0 -6.0 6.0 U U U N U N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.68 AL132023 230915 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.10 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.