Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.60     67.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.3  62.3  60.1  55.2  50.0  43.8  47.4  63.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0  14.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.7  56.2  38.6  -2.3 -28.2 -27.1 -28.6 -32.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  90.0  54.0  46.0  87.0  68.0  37.0   8.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  43.0  41.0  42.0  50.0  49.0  55.0  55.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  11.0   5.0   7.0   4.0   3.0  16.0  18.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.1%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.54

 AL132023 230915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.60     67.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.