Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230915 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.10 67.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.90 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 61.8 61.6 56.1 56.3 46.2 44.5 51.6 66.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 61.2 43.6 2.7 -11.5 -23.0 -21.8 -26.2 -29.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 95.0 57.0 85.0 106.0 75.0 54.0 17.0 18.0 F N F F N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 42.0 43.0 46.0 50.0 54.0 61.0 53.0 VU VU VU VU U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 7.0 17.0 10.0 3.0 0.0 10.0 5.0 N N U U N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.90 AL132023 230915 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.10 67.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.