Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.00     66.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        65.3  55.9  58.3  50.8  43.6  46.6  58.2  67.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.6   2.7 -11.5 -23.2 -21.9 -25.3 -29.4 -27.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  43.0 102.0  70.0  54.0  33.0  -7.0  53.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  42.0  45.0  49.0  49.0  59.0  65.0  55.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  14.0  -2.0  -6.0   4.0  17.0 -10.0  -3.0  N  U  N  F  N  U  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.40

 AL132023 230915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.00     66.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.