Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230916 06UTC Storm Located at : 40.90 65.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 52.4 48.5 45.5 45.2 49.6 62.4 74.0 74.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -18.2 -23.2 -23.2 -22.1 -25.4 -29.4 -27.9 -27.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 88.0 53.0 62.0 58.0 46.0 20.0 27.0 -19.0 F N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 55.0 63.0 51.0 56.0 VU U U VU U N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 10.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 -27.0 -26.0-109.0 F U N N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 16.46 AL132023 230916 06UTC Storm Located at : 40.90 65.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.