Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230916 18UTC Storm Located at : 43.80 66.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.0 44.8 44.2 47.2 60.7 88.2 88.2 88.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -13.2 -12.1 -11.9 -15.4 -18.8 -17.2 -17.2 -17.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 39.0 69.0 57.0 -16.0 -30.0 -30.0 -30.0 N N N N U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 46.0 51.0 54.0 58.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 U VU U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 2.0 11.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 N N N U VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 14.22 AL132023 230916 18UTC Storm Located at : 43.80 66.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.