Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.70     66.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.1  43.3  44.9  50.4  67.9  67.9  67.9  67.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -7.3  -7.8  -9.1 -11.3 -13.3 -13.3 -13.3 -13.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  77.0  73.0  41.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  52.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0  14.0   7.0 -31.0 -31.0 -31.0 -31.0  N  N  U  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 13.72

 AL132023 230917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.70     66.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.