Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230917 06UTC Storm Located at : 45.90 64.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.50 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.0 42.7 45.5 55.0 80.5 80.5 80.5 80.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -2.3 -4.1 -7.2 -8.9 -7.2 -7.2 -7.2 -7.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 53.0 68.0 48.0 -8.0 -31.0 -31.0 -31.0 -31.0 N N N U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 52.0 61.0 62.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 U U N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 11.0 -21.0 -38.0 -39.0 -39.0 -39.0 -39.0 N U VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 12.50 AL132023 230917 06UTC Storm Located at : 45.90 64.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.