Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230917 12UTC Storm Located at : 47.30 63.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.60 F TC SIZE [%] 144.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.2 49.8 55.9 62.4 72.2 72.2 72.2 72.2 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 0.9 -1.5 -3.9 -2.1 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 66.0 37.0 2.0 -17.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 59.0 62.0 56.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 10.0 -36.0 -98.0-166.0-166.0-166.0-166.0 U U VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 11.94 AL132023 230917 12UTC Storm Located at : 47.30 63.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.