Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230907 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 25.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 66.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 33.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 18.2 18.6 20.5 24.7 26.2 33.9 29.0 N F N N N N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 16.0 15.0 26.0 21.0 22.0 34.0 30.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 101.2 94.3 94.3 89.6 91.1 92.7 96.0 99.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 14.0 -11.0 10.0 11.0 65.0 73.0 24.0 N U U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 53.0 53.0 54.0 53.0 58.0 61.0 67.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 12.0 5.0 8.0 U U U U U U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.6% 2.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.9% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 10.7% 5.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.3% 2.1% 55kt / 48h 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 70kt / 48h 3.9% 1.7% 2.8% 65kt / 72h 1.7% 2.2% 1.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.56 AL142023 230907 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 25.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.