Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230908 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 28.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 51.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.4 22.8 23.3 26.5 27.6 37.0 28.8 31.6 N N N N N U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 25.0 31.0 19.0 26.0 34.0 30.0 22.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.3 89.3 87.7 87.7 89.3 92.7 94.4 99.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -9.0 -3.0 -6.0 21.0 23.0 40.0 39.0 36.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 53.0 54.0 53.0 55.0 58.0 61.0 61.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 13.0 9.0 8.0 11.0 4.0 7.0 10.0 U U U U U N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.2% 1.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 70kt / 48h 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.42 AL142023 230908 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 28.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.