Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230908 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 30.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 15.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.90 F TC SIZE [%] 56.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 25.9 28.1 28.4 30.3 32.5 28.1 24.1 N N N N N U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 31.0 20.0 23.0 27.0 32.0 33.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.3 86.1 87.7 87.7 91.0 94.4 98.0 101.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 2.0 8.0 29.0 83.0 24.0 54.0 54.0 U U U N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 55.0 55.0 56.0 59.0 62.0 63.0 60.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 10.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 6.0 11.0 7.0 U U N U U N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.4% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.32 AL142023 230908 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 30.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.