Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230908 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 33.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.60 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.0 31.8 29.0 27.5 33.7 27.0 24.9 25.7 U U N N U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 29.0 27.0 32.0 29.0 30.0 17.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.1 89.3 91.0 92.7 94.4 99.8 101.6 105.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -31.0 11.0 72.0 107.0 21.0 55.0 61.0 60.0 VU U N F U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 58.0 59.0 59.0 62.0 61.0 58.0 55.0 U U U U N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 3.0 6.0 4.0 6.0 N U U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.40 AL142023 230908 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 33.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.