Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230909 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 35.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 25.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.9 28.0 25.9 33.3 29.8 33.3 25.2 35.1 U N N U N U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 28.0 32.0 37.0 34.0 21.0 15.0 32.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.3 91.0 92.7 94.4 96.2 99.8 103.5 105.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 63.0 107.0 73.0 47.0 60.0 74.0 81.0 U N F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 58.0 57.0 61.0 61.0 58.0 55.0 U U U U N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 11.0 5.0 3.0 6.0 1.0 5.0 3.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 1.1% 0.6% 0.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.50 AL142023 230909 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 35.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.