Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70     36.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  29.8  36.1  35.6  29.0  26.0  28.0  31.1  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  33.0  37.0  31.0  26.0  18.0  14.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.0  87.7  89.4  91.2  94.8  94.8 100.5 100.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0 103.0  80.0  44.0  19.0  68.0  61.0  66.0  N  F  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.3%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        0.9%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.60

 AL142023 230909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70     36.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.