Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230909 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.20 37.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.0 36.5 34.3 30.6 30.8 22.9 29.9 32.5 U U U U U N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 37.0 33.0 29.0 35.0 19.0 15.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.7 89.4 89.4 91.2 93.0 96.6 98.5 96.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 107.0 82.0 55.0 47.0 37.0 44.0 85.0 48.0 F N N N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 60.0 62.0 64.0 59.0 59.0 56.0 56.0 U N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 0.0 3.0 9.0 2.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 N N N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.1% 1.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 70kt / 48h 1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.66 AL142023 230909 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.20 37.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.