Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     38.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  33.8  27.3  29.2  26.1  32.1  27.3  27.7  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  36.0  29.0  36.0  26.0  17.0  21.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.4  89.4  91.2  91.2  93.0  96.6  98.5  96.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  77.0  43.0  76.0  38.0  74.0  55.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   6.0   8.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.3%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        0.9%        1.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.72

 AL142023 230909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     38.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.