Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230910 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 39.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.50 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.5 26.5 31.1 32.6 24.5 30.4 25.6 23.1 U N U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 28.0 32.0 28.0 17.0 14.0 14.0 16.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.4 84.4 88.0 88.0 89.8 91.6 93.5 89.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 70.0 45.0 47.0 25.0 57.0 89.0 43.0 -12.0 N N N U N F N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 64.0 59.0 59.0 57.0 58.0 54.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 7.0 9.0 6.0 7.0 N U U N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.7% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.76 AL142023 230910 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 39.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.