Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     39.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  31.8  33.8  26.9  32.2  25.5  29.0  25.4  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  32.0  29.0  21.0  16.0  16.0  14.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.4  84.4  88.0  88.0  91.6  91.6  93.5  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  83.0  17.0  60.0  59.0  39.0  62.0  36.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   7.0   4.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.78

 AL142023 230910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     39.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.