Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230910 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 39.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.1 31.9 26.3 27.0 34.1 24.2 23.2 15.2 U U N N U N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 23.0 16.0 15.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 88.0 88.0 89.8 89.8 91.6 91.6 86.2 81.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 78.0 44.0 63.0 78.0 81.0 42.0 39.0 37.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 58.0 57.0 55.0 56.0 55.0 52.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 9.0 9.0 5.0 U N N N N U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.90 AL142023 230910 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 39.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.