Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230910 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.50 40.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.60 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.3 26.8 28.1 29.7 28.0 27.8 18.5 12.6 U N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 16.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 13.0 10.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.0 79.8 81.6 81.6 81.6 78.0 74.4 67.7 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 53.0 66.0 82.0 7.0 21.0 25.0 -6.0 N N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 57.0 55.0 59.0 57.0 53.0 49.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 N U U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.8% 1.5% 2.6% 25kt / 24h 3.6% 5.6% 4.6% 30kt / 24h 1.7% 2.2% 1.9% 35kt / 24h 1.0% 2.0% 1.5% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 2.0% 1.5% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 4.9% 2.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 AL142023 230910 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.50 40.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.