Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230911 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.30 39.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.00 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.6 26.0 30.0 30.6 26.8 21.4 12.1 13.8 N N N U N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 15.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.8 79.8 81.6 81.6 81.6 76.2 69.3 67.7 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 56.0 68.0 92.0 73.0 11.0 37.0 24.0 55.0 N N F N U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 57.0 55.0 61.0 59.0 54.0 54.0 U U U U N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 7.0 3.0 4.0 3.0 U U U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.0% 0.9% 1.9% 25kt / 24h 1.1% 2.7% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 2.3% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 AL142023 230911 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.30 39.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.