Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230911 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70     40.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.4  27.5  23.0  22.3  19.9   9.8  13.8  19.1  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  14.0  12.0  11.0  13.0  12.0   9.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.0  74.8  74.8  74.8  71.2  66.0  62.7  56.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  97.0  56.0  35.0  24.0  -2.0  14.0  17.0  N  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  10.0   6.0   8.0  10.0   4.0   4.0   6.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        0.8%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        3.4%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.4%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        2.7%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.96

 AL142023 230911 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70     40.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.