Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50     39.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  24.4  20.9  20.0  12.5  10.5  15.4  26.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  12.0  11.0  14.0  12.0   9.0   8.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.8  69.8  69.8  68.0  62.7  57.7  51.5  47.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  51.0  48.0  53.0  13.0  -2.0  30.0  63.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  61.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  10.0   8.0  13.0   5.0   6.0   6.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        1.8%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%        6.2%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        2.9%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        2.9%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        2.9%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        5.5%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.96

 AL142023 230911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50     39.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.