Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230912 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.50 39.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 20.9 20.4 14.6 12.8 14.5 18.2 26.0 N N N F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 11.0 14.0 14.0 12.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.6 64.8 63.0 61.2 56.0 51.1 46.5 42.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 53.0 49.0 16.0 -13.0 -34.0 31.0 -21.0 N N N U U VU N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 59.0 58.0 59.0 58.0 58.0 62.0 61.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 9.0 13.0 10.0 12.0 8.0 6.0 10.0 N U U U U U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.6% 2.4% 6.5% 25kt / 24h 5.6% 6.5% 6.1% 30kt / 24h 5.6% 3.3% 4.5% 35kt / 24h 4.3% 3.3% 3.8% 40kt / 24h 4.3% 3.3% 3.8% 45kt / 36h 3.9% 4.4% 4.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.98 AL142023 230912 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.50 39.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.