Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230912 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.70 39.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 17.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.9 20.0 12.9 13.6 12.6 17.1 25.7 25.9 N N F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 9.0 8.0 4.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 59.8 54.4 54.4 52.7 46.1 41.5 37.2 30.4 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 28.0 0.0 32.0 -27.0 -53.0 25.0 -26.0 N U U N VU VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 56.0 58.0 56.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 8.0 5.0 4.0 7.0 5.0 11.0 12.0 U U N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.4% 2.5% 7.5% 25kt / 24h 6.3% 5.9% 6.1% 30kt / 24h 6.3% 3.3% 4.8% 35kt / 24h 5.3% 3.3% 4.3% 40kt / 24h 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 45kt / 36h 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.82 AL142023 230912 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.70 39.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.