Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.60     39.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  14.7  16.3  14.4  16.7  23.5  23.6  18.9  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  13.0  11.0  10.0   9.0   8.0   3.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.0  54.4  52.7  51.0  46.1  41.5  37.2  30.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0   9.0  34.0  20.0   1.0   6.0  59.0  16.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   6.0   4.0  11.0   6.0  10.0   7.0   5.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%        2.1%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%        4.3%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        2.3%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%        2.3%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        2.3%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        2.1%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.74

 AL142023 230912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.60     39.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.