Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230912 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.10 39.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 16.1 15.6 15.4 19.5 29.4 17.8 21.7 F F F F N N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 8.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 56.0 54.3 54.3 51.1 46.5 42.2 35.4 35.4 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 28.0 -3.0 6.0 -12.0 92.0 7.0 -6.0 U U U U U F U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 53.0 52.0 51.0 56.0 57.0 53.0 43.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 3.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 13.0 6.0 2.0 U N N N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.44 AL142023 230912 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.10 39.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.