Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230913 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 39.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.7 14.9 14.4 19.3 22.6 22.3 18.1 24.7 F F F N N N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 47.7 49.3 44.6 44.6 34.4 34.4 29.2 29.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 -7.0 11.0 -24.0 51.0 56.0 38.0 -26.0 U U U VU N N N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 52.0 51.0 54.0 59.0 54.0 45.0 37.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 6.0 8.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 N N U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.5% 2.1% 3.3% 25kt / 24h 1.5% 2.9% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 1.5% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.28 AL142023 230913 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 39.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.