Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230913 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 39.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.1 17.9 19.6 19.2 25.6 15.0 23.7 30.8 F F N N N F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 7.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.3 44.6 44.6 40.0 34.4 27.9 29.2 29.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 22.0 -21.0 10.0 78.0 60.0 -59.0 -70.0 U U VU U N N VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 53.0 58.0 55.0 48.0 38.0 34.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 8.3% 4.0% 6.2% 25kt / 24h 3.7% 4.9% 4.3% 30kt / 24h 3.7% 3.0% 3.3% 35kt / 24h 3.7% 2.8% 3.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.14 AL142023 230913 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 39.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.