Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80     40.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  19.3  19.4  21.6  18.9  16.1  28.1  30.6  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.6  40.0  40.0  34.4  33.0  33.0  33.0  34.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0 -20.0  11.0  33.0  47.0   0.0   7.0 -99.0  U VU  U  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  53.0  57.0  57.0  52.0  46.0  41.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   7.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        0.9%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.90

 AL142023 230913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80     40.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.