Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230913 18UTC Storm Located at : 34.40 40.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.6 17.3 19.5 24.0 17.4 23.6 26.1 25.9 N F N N F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 39.6 35.0 35.0 28.0 22.9 28.0 28.0 29.4 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -14.0 13.0 37.0 75.0 0.0 -28.0 -79.0 -20.0 U U N N U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 55.0 56.0 53.0 48.0 41.0 39.0 37.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 3.0 4.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.5% 0.9% 1.7% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.82 AL142023 230913 18UTC Storm Located at : 34.40 40.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.