Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90     40.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  21.0  26.1  24.7  19.7  27.7  27.1  14.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  34.4  33.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  40.0  40.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  36.0  64.0  20.0  -7.0 -40.0 -89.0 -61.0  U  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  45.0  37.0  36.0  39.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   8.0   3.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.58

 AL142023 230914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90     40.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.