Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.30     40.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  22.8  19.0  19.0  31.8  26.3  21.3  11.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.0  43.0  43.0  41.7  43.0  48.6  50.0  51.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  51.0  -4.0  -6.0 -38.0 -74.0 -29.0  -2.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  50.0  50.0  43.0  35.0  31.0  31.0  34.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -5.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.30

 AL142023 230914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.30     40.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.