Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.70     39.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  19.1  19.4  29.6  30.5  29.9  17.7  10.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         38.0  36.7  36.7  36.7  42.2  45.0  45.0  46.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0 -12.0 -18.0   9.0 -26.0 -87.0 -78.0  25.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  46.0  42.0  37.0  34.0  38.0  42.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.3%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.24

 AL142023 230914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.70     39.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.