Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.80     38.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  31.8  34.5  26.5  27.3  22.9  14.0  22.3  N  U  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   6.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.7  46.7  46.7  52.2  55.0  55.0  56.5  45.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0  -9.0 -12.0  -5.0-104.0 -12.0  -3.0  54.0 VU  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  39.0  37.0  36.0  31.0  33.0  36.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.28

 AL142023 230915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.80     38.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.