Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.40     38.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  38.3  31.3  31.3  29.0  19.9  10.6  24.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.7  55.8  57.2  57.2  64.6  66.1  61.5  50.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -30.0  -1.0  -5.0 -65.0 -13.0  -2.0  20.0  U VU  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  39.0  37.0  34.0  33.0  35.0  37.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -4.0  -8.0  -4.0   1.0  -2.0   7.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.42

 AL142023 230915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.40     38.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.