Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.10     37.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  31.2  30.7  31.3  25.1  15.3  19.5  30.9  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.8  55.8  57.2  63.0  64.6  61.5  55.8  49.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -37.0  -6.0 -34.0 -89.0 -78.0  15.0  15.0  39.0 VU  U VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  38.0  36.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  40.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  14.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.54

 AL142023 230915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.10     37.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.