Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230916 06UTC Storm Located at : 35.30 38.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.30 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.1 31.5 29.7 28.3 17.4 18.1 38.9 27.9 N U N N F F U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.0 61.5 63.0 64.6 64.6 60.0 47.9 39.8 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0-108.0-100.0 -71.0 -47.0 -45.0 7.0 15.0 U VU VU VU VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 35.0 33.0 32.0 32.0 33.0 38.0 46.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 11.0 F F N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.84 AL142023 230916 06UTC Storm Located at : 35.30 38.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.