Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.70     38.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  27.1  25.1  23.9  11.8  27.3  40.6  27.3  U  N  N  N  F  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.5  73.0  74.6  74.6  70.0  64.4  52.0  48.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]  -107.0-110.0 -79.0 -66.0 -17.0  17.0  18.0 -19.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   33.0  31.0  30.0  32.0  33.0  41.0  43.0  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0  11.0  16.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.98

 AL142023 230916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.70     38.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.