Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30     39.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  25.4  25.0  23.8  18.7  35.6  29.2  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.5  73.0  74.6  74.6  70.0  57.9  50.9  47.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]  -125.0 -97.0 -51.0 -55.0 -37.0  40.0  21.0   9.0 VU VU VU VU VU  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   30.0  31.0  33.0  33.0  37.0  44.0  41.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   7.0  12.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.00

 AL142023 230916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30     39.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.