Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142023 230917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.00     40.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  24.5  24.3  17.6  25.3  40.0  32.1  25.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.0  79.6  79.6  75.0  69.4  62.9  53.8  57.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]  -103.0 -64.0 -57.0 -10.0   9.0  -8.0 -42.0 -41.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   30.0  31.0  30.0  33.0  40.0  44.0  37.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   5.0   9.0  23.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.00

 AL142023 230917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.00     40.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.