Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230917 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.90 41.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.50 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.1 19.5 16.9 18.8 31.6 37.7 29.5 20.4 N N F N U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.6 84.6 80.0 80.0 69.2 60.9 57.7 59.8 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -81.0 -45.0 -13.0 -24.0 6.0 -19.0 23.0 -17.0 VU VU U VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 29.0 29.0 31.0 36.0 41.0 38.0 34.0 30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 5.0 24.0 19.0 N N N N U N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.02 AL142023 230917 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.90 41.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.