Rapid Intensification Guidance AL142023 230917 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 42.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.4 15.2 17.4 26.8 38.7 37.2 27.2 19.5 N F F N U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.6 80.0 74.4 74.4 62.0 58.8 59.8 62.0 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -41.0 -9.0 -25.0 25.0 -50.0 -38.0 -2.0 -40.0 VU U VU U VU VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 30.0 31.0 35.0 41.0 40.0 35.0 33.0 28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 11.0 26.0 19.0 5.0 N N N N U VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.76 AL142023 230917 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 42.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.