Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00     43.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  14.4  15.2  18.1  15.4  14.3  18.5  14.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  42.0  35.0  32.0  37.0  67.0  41.0  59.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.7 116.5 114.4 114.4 116.5 120.7 125.1 129.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0 115.0 131.0  96.0  83.0  33.0  29.0   6.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  71.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.4%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       12.7%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        4.4%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       23.9%       15.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.7%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h       24.8%       24.8%       24.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       11.6%       18.2%
 65kt / 72h       40.2%       27.2%       33.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 AL152023 230915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00     43.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  14.4  15.2  18.1  15.4  14.3  18.5  14.1  N  U  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  71.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%